Category: Politics

Against Nostalgia

Mark Davis1 Comment

 

Some conservatives carry on even as the bizarro world continues to invert reality on Trump’s watch. Over at National Review they are kvetching about state and local regulations for hair stylists. Damn, look at the market distortions! If only we could unlock that 1/2 of 1/10th of a percent of the market we would achieve libertarian liberation! Meanwhile, Donald Trump is taking an ownership stake in Intel and imposing export tariffs on Nvidia like a socialist dictator. And David Brooks at New York Times proclaims that cultural factors override the role of money in terms of making or breaking the success of people. If only we were more…Swedish we would not have to descend into nihilistic doom cycles.

It’s not that these aren’t partially true, of course, but merely that they are shadow-boxing on an old battlefield filled with muskets and cannonballs. The new war has moved on.

This inverted reality calls for something different. The notion that we can reclaim social stability through nostalgia or micro-microeconomics lacks sensibility, credibility, and honesty. We live in a modern world where even core concepts like the reliability of the Gospels is widely distrusted, which in part explains the increasing view of Christian institutions as centers of manipulation and cruelty. There never was any there there, just shadowy programming and ignorance before the internet era. Get them young enough and they can be groomed, like Epstein’s victims. The critical role of culture and institutions was always as fragile as the communications and information systems that supported it. Now there is nothing but the dark potential of power.

And here I am, so negative! And just after inventing my own religion built around trust and optimizing our personal and group engagement with the state and the world.… Read the rest

The Path of Enkinema

Mark Davis1 Comment

 

 

There’s a sickening vertigo to the MAGA-scape at the theoretical edge where phrases like “administrative state” and “managerial class” get bandied about as a way of opposing thought leadership in favor of raw aggression. It’s both a new authoritarian playbook and a categorization system that is deceptive in its impotence because there always needs to be careful thought in our complex societies; oh, how conservatives once loved the nuances of “unintended consequences” as a way of poisoning the well of change. We see this in the whiplash over foreign policy ideology (America first, damn the struggles of the world) and the reality of being active participants in the new struggles of great powers where mercurial Trump keeps lashing out, retracting, and slashing awkwardly again. We see little resembling the hallmarks of Christian humility or compassion, just performative gestures that rely on the thin gruel of culture-war complaints to interpenetrate governance and aggressive posturing.

It’s different from before, sterile and mean, like the revelatory queasiness of grainy 4:3 Cops or Maury Povich in the 90s.

Given all this, I thought it might help mightily to start a new religion that takes over and displaces all this antagonism, a way of restructuring the worldwide mind around modern insights. It’s a fool’s errand, I know. Our most recent examples of cults and mini-religions all have revolved around deceit and control—even the political cult of MAGA—so trying to displace it all might be inverting the mechanisms that really drive religious success and spiritual change. But it makes a fun side-project when I’m not writing other things or coding.

I was in a taxi crawling and dodging through central Bangkok today and the wizened driver was both texting cute furry emojis and watching streaming video of the news on the center console of his Toyota!… Read the rest

The Hard Problem of the Future

Mark Davis1 Comment

The American zeitgeist is obsessed with decline and a curious sense of ennui. On the progressive left there is the rolling mortal threat of inequality and the destruction of the middle class. Wages don’t keep up with inflation or, more broadly, the cost of living. On the new MAGA right there is an unfocused rage that builds in part on the angst of hollowed-out rural and post-industrial communities, and then in part on undocumented immigrants as scapegoats and symbolic of lefty lawlessness, and again in part as a tirade against wealthy, coastal elites who control the media, universities, and have pushed the Overton window in incremental lurches towards inclusiveness. The populism is mostly half-baked, certainly, and exploited by cynical conservatives for undermining social support while bolstering commercial interests and reducing taxes for the well-to-do. But half-baked is enough for a sensibility; things fully realized are only afterthoughts.

There are other chthonic rumblings and imputations that filter up. The rise of China’s industrial, military, and scientific power is a growing shadow that some see threatening to engulf the world in its umbra. And with it comes the fear of slowing technological might, despite the domination of the recent technological present by the United States. We might be left behind like unhoused, opioid-addicted, modern peasants. The crumbling of the cities would be just punishment even if their loss only cascades the problems of the heartland.

And so as the future keeps getting harder, we turn to mad kings who promise radical change in the face of hard problems. The change can’t possibly be realized, so it is better to just pretend that there are solutions. Annex Greenland, rename the Gulf of Mexico, incorporate Canada, occupy Panama, reach for Mars, acquire territory, but all the while cocooned by the complex institutional and international realities that mean that acting aggressively and alone is now untenable.… Read the rest

Cybernetics and the Banality of Narcissism

Mark Davis1 Comment

The unalloyed stupidity of reckless tariffing and threats by the Trump administration against trading partners and allies around the world is baffling and deeply concerning. Even when a serious economist admits that tariffs can play a role in helping onshore manufacturing, they also slam the uncertainty that Trump’s mercurial behavior imposes on the world economy. Then there is the childish lashing out at universities, law firms, and perceived enemies like the former director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency who contradicted Trump in 2020 on election fraud. Next we have the cruelty of rapid and wrong deportations and visa revocations based on alleged allegiances; freedom is no longer guaranteed for visitors and guests in our country. And then there are the oxymoronic efforts at efficiency in governance that involve no efforts whatsoever to identify how exactly to make our government more efficient.

This is the banality of narcissism aided by incompetence.

But, mercifully, the counter-currents that are pushing the country away from an economic catastrophe demonstrate the self-correcting nature of complex systems. The term “cybernetics” comes from the Ancient Greek term for the steersman of a boat. It was used by the French polymath Ampère in a volume dedicated to the structure of human knowledge where it referred to the science of governance. Ah, the Age of Enlightenment, when some hoped that through careful thought ideas like economics, government, and international relations could be improved. If only David Ricardo were here today to discuss his theory of comparative advantage with America’s leadership. Governance was in mind when Norbert Wiener invented the theory of cybernetics as a mathematical approach to system control where feedback signals steer the system towards stable patterns of operation.… Read the rest

Studying for Exceptionalism

Mark Davis1 Comment

Caustic modern American politics has arisen in the new metaverse of communications technologies. Everyone has an opinion and shares it. This perhaps leads to pervasive unhappiness with any kind of governance. There’s always something to bitch about because real change is both hard and always has winners and losers of some sort. But what do the happiest countries in the world do differently than those of us in the second and lower tiers? Worth reading is the seventh chapter of the World Happiness Report titled “The Nordic Exceptionalism.” Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, and Norway are all at the top, along with Switzerland, New Zealand, and Austria. And what do these countries do right that makes them so exceptional in terms of happiness? Well, it’s not due to some of the suggested culprits like low immigrant rates and cultural uniformity or high rates of suicide culling out the unhappy. It’s also not clearly due to lower levels of income inequality compared with peer countries. The effect of inequality on happiness appears to correlate with GDP per capita and is reduced in impact by the presence of a generous welfare state; it contributes but is not central.

Instead, important factors include trust in social institutions and low rates of corruption. People in these countries also feel freer than in peer countries, including the United States. Their overall life satisfaction levels are very high and have much lower variation within the populace than countries like ours, as well. Part of the sense of freedom may arise from the generosity of the welfare states by reducing the risk of exploring life options, which is also a side-effect of wealth in these countries.

A dive into potential root causes reveals some surprises, like:

Another important underlying factor might have been mass education.

… Read the rest

Uncommon Goods

Mark Davis2 Comments

In the days before Trump’s inauguration we can see some of the reflections of alt-right and conspiratorial ideas crawling ashore from febrile ponds. They range from mildly-incoherent free-wheeling-conspiratorial (Peter Thiel), to narrowly self-serving Libertarian-light (Marc Andreessen), to often contradictory, racist, and cruel (Curtis Yarvin). What should be asked about each is what vision they have of a common good for America and, though they and the MAGA movement are largely focused on our country, how also the larger world might benefit or change as a result of a new form of American engagement with the world. The idea of a common good is an old one that has been brought back into vogue by some social and legal theorists, like the “common good constitutionalist” Adrian Vermuele who I wrote about previously. For Vermuele there is a common good in redistributing land and resources to help the poor as well as in the government restricting and limiting free speech to enforce his concept (informed by his Catholicism) of morality in thought and action.

In radical contrast we have the new MAGA commentariat. There are some fundamental contradictions at the heart of the MAGA braintrust. On the one hand, they see a runaway federal government that hides facts and strong-arms business leaders with threats of regulation and lawsuits. The government and the establishment media and universities support activism by positioning themselves as the fact-sifters and thought leaders. Andreessen complains that educated workers demand too much from his companies. They want environmental and sustainability commitments. They want DEI policies. They want positions on global affairs and worldwide LGBTQ+ rights. It’s annoying to Andreessen and makes entrepreneurship too complicated.… Read the rest

Time, Consciousness, and Joy in 2025

Mark Davis2 Comments

A glorious 2025 comes roaring in despite the nastiness of contemporary American and (some) worldwide politics. Everyone’s angry, despite the ingenious control of murderous pathogens, the brilliant performance of the post-COVID economic recovery in the United States, dropping crime rates, and the continued progress on reducing and eliminating worldwide poverty. But these are aggregate measures of social and scientific success and far too many individuals remain discontented with their own status and fears that social forces beyond their control are limiting their success and happiness.

In this, one must be circumspect: reading out stats that contradict the mood is not reading the room. So, instead, I try to focus on unexpected innovations that lead us to defocus on our own situational context and instead find a larger reimagining. This is a modern therapy that isn’t dismissive of the effectiveness of our highly successful institutions of scientific achievement, peace-preserving world orders, and liberal democracies that effectively balance individual freedoms against order. It’s a celebration of them, instead.

I give you two new joys as the new year starts to build. First, we have the novel realization that dark energy and matter might be better explained by relativistic distortions of space-time in the universe based on the quantities of matter in denser versus void-like areas of space. Here’s Anton Petrov with a primer:

This certainly simplifies things if true, but it needs to be observationally verified and reconsidered if it doesn’t pan out. There’s that underlying joy in science: everything is tentative because we are all flawed.

The second development changes from an external focus on the monumental scale of the universe to something much more human. I’ve previously covered the curious theory of quantum consciousness proposed by Roger Penrose and Stuart Hameroff, but there have been some recent developments.… Read the rest

Gamify This Gnashing

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Oh, the great gnashing of teeth! How can so many Americans favor this felon, low-rent authoritarian, swindler, sexual predator, and singularly unfit former president over Kamala Harris? And also push the House and Senate into red dominance? The analyses run the gamut, from late outreach to young men, the effective use of podcasts, ineffective Democratic messaging, a postmodern normalization of sexism and racism, and the lingering impact of inflation captured by the new phrase, “the lived economy,” which is a way of side-stepping actual economic indicators and focusing on individual anecdotes for reading-out unease.

But perhaps the most interesting to me is the suggestion that there are two abstractions that contemporary “conservatives” have recently excelled at (adding in scare quotes to give the RINOs and Never Trumpers a way to gnash their cheeks): aesthetics and archetypes. Brand differentiation and identification is critical for low information voters, and the archetypes and surrounding aesthetics serve as proxies for a vision of who should be a ruler and why. Democrats are too focussed on dry little policy ideas like increasing childcare options or improving housing affordability. The MAGA Republican has Tradwives, podcast bros, and gun gurus.

In 2003 I developed a social media platform called Planktown that I thought radically improved upon the kinds of political discussions, arguments, and trolling that I saw in the comment sections of online newspapers and other platforms. In Planktown, you would create a page for yourself or your party or coalition, etc. and then drag and drop interests and policy points to populate your page. You could link to news stories, other pages, and the whole system would be monetized through advertising and paid subscriptions for pros and campaigns that could get additional analytic tools.… Read the rest

A Myth for Fools and Children

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Like the Overton Window, the Economic Expectations Window is the range of acceptable ideas about economics. Here’s my answer to the question of what I would do about inflation if I had been debating with Trump and Biden:

Folks, these two clowns (and one is more clownish than the other…you be the judge) are not divulging the truth about inflation. Here it is: the best guess by economists about our recent spat of inflation is that it was caused by two factors. First, consumer patterns shifted during COVID and that put demand stress on certain areas of the economy. Money chased after home offices and accessory dwelling units, and it stopped flowing to travel and tourism and eating out. Second, the payments and benefits to people—payments that were needed to head off greater suffering and possibly an economic depression—enhanced the effect. You had more money and lots of time on your hands.

There is no Biden or Trump economy. It’s a myth for fools and children, at least insofar as neither of them does anything dumbly radical (ahem, crazy tariffs).

The primary tool our government uses to manage inflation is the independent Federal Reserve changing certain government interest rates and attempting to slow spending. They have a hard task—a difficult balance—because they don’t want to force the economy into a recession. Raised interest rates ripple out and also impact the affordability of homes and cars. But the president doesn’t control how the Fed sets interest rates. They are independent and for good cause: to avoid creating an economic mess for political reasons like juicing the economy before an election.

There is one other tool that presidents do have a hand in, however, and that is taxes and spending by the government.

… Read the rest