Month: June 2024

A Myth for Fools and Children

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Like the Overton Window, the Economic Expectations Window is the range of acceptable ideas about economics. Here’s my answer to the question of what I would do about inflation if I had been debating with Trump and Biden:

Folks, these two clowns (and one is more clownish than the other…you be the judge) are not divulging the truth about inflation. Here it is: the best guess by economists about our recent spat of inflation is that it was caused by two factors. First, consumer patterns shifted during COVID and that put demand stress on certain areas of the economy. Money chased after home offices and accessory dwelling units, and it stopped flowing to travel and tourism and eating out. Second, the payments and benefits to people—payments that were needed to head off greater suffering and possibly an economic depression—enhanced the effect. You had more money and lots of time on your hands.

There is no Biden or Trump economy. It’s a myth for fools and children, at least insofar as neither of them does anything dumbly radical (ahem, crazy tariffs).

The primary tool our government uses to manage inflation is the independent Federal Reserve changing certain government interest rates and attempting to slow spending. They have a hard task—a difficult balance—because they don’t want to force the economy into a recession. Raised interest rates ripple out and also impact the affordability of homes and cars. But the president doesn’t control how the Fed sets interest rates. They are independent and for good cause: to avoid creating an economic mess for political reasons like juicing the economy before an election.

There is one other tool that presidents do have a hand in, however, and that is taxes and spending by the government.

… Read the rest

Uncertainty, Murder, and Emergent Free Will

Mark Davis3 Comments

I’ll jump directly into my main argument without stating more than the basic premise that if determinism holds all our actions cannot be otherwise and there is no “libertarian” free will.

Let’s construct a robot (R) that has a decision-making apparatus (DM), some sensors (S) for collecting impressions about our world, and a memory (M) of all those impressions and past decisions of DM. DM is pretty much an IF-THEN arrangement but has a unique feature. It has subroutines that generate new IF-THENs by taking existing rules and randomly recombining them together with variation. This might be done by simply snipping apart at logical operations (blue AND wings AND small => bluejay at 75% can be pulled apart into “blue AND wings” and “wings AND small” and those two combined with other such rules). This generative subroutine (GS) then scores the novel IF-THENs by comparing them to the recorded history contained in M as well as current sensory impressions and keeps the new rule that scores best or the top few if they score closely. The scoring methodology might include a combination of coverage and fidelity to the impressions and/or recalled action/impressions.

Now this is all quite deterministic. I mentioned randomness but we can produce pseudo-random number generators that are good enough or even rely on a small electronic circuit that amplifies thermodynamic noise to get something “truly” random. But really we could just substitute an algorithm that checks every possible reorganization and scores them all and shelve the randomness component, alleviating any concerns that we are smuggling in randomness for our later construct of free agency.

Now let’s add a rule to DM that when R perceives it has been treated unfairly it might murder the human being who treated it that way.… Read the rest

A Pelican Ate a Lemon and the Kindness Test

Mark Davis1 Comment

The Pelican State, Louisiana, just passed a law requiring the display of the Ten Commandments in public schools. The posters have a specified size and must be paid for by private donations. The purpose of the law is a blatant attempt to get religion back in public schools but the legal convolutions for trying it out once again are rather interesting, though I don’t think the reasoning will work.

Here’s an NPR interview with Matt Krause of the First Liberty Institute that defends religious liberty cases and supports the new law. He specifically singles out Kennedy v. Bremerton School District as showing a path forward for the Decalogue to reappear on schoolhouse walls. In Kennedy, a football coach would go pray at the 50-yard-line after games. He didn’t gather students with him or utter prayers over a loudspeaker. He just prayed alone. The school district fired him because they were nervous about the separation of church and state and the appearance of endorsement by the school system due to an employee acting religious. SCOTUS, however, used a balancing test between the coach’s First Amendment rights and the school’s desire for non-endorsement and concluded that the school system went too far. Krause thinks that the suspension in Kennedy of a hard delimitation gained from Lemon v. Kurtzman and the adoption of a weaker “history and tradition” standard creates a gap that the Decalogue can sneak through.

I doubt it. The balancing in Kennedy sheds little light on schoolhouse Ten Commandments posters which were ruled against in Stone v. Graham. In Stone, a strict “Lemon test” was applied to the display and it was found to have no secular purpose.… Read the rest

Indeterminacy and the Ethics of Emergence

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Continuing on with this theme of an ethics of emergence, can we formulate something interesting that does better than just assert that freedom and coordination are inherent virtues in this new scheme? And what does that mean anyway in the dirty details? We certainly see natural, emergent systems that exhibit tight regulatory control where stability, equilibrium, and homeostasis prevent dissipation, like those hoped-for fascist organismic states. There is not much free about these lower level systems, but we think that though they are necessary they are insufficient for the higher-order challenges of a statistically uncertain world. And that uncertainty is what drives the emergence of control systems in the first place. The control breaks out at some level, though, in a kind of teleomatic inspiration, and applies stochastic exploration of the adaptive landscape. Freedom then arises as an additional control level, emergent itself.

We also have this lurking possibility that emergent systems may not be explainable in the same manner that we have come to expect scientific theories to work. Being highly contingent they can only be explained in specificity about their contingent emergence, not by these elegant little explanatory theories that we have now in fields like physics. Stephen Wolfram, and the Santa Fe Institute folks as well, investigated this idea but it has remained inconclusive in its predictive power so far, though that may be changing.

There is an interesting alternative application for deep learning models and, more generally, the application of enormous simulation systems: when emergent complexity is daunting, use simulation to uncover the spectrum of relationships that govern complex system behavior.

Can we apply that to this ethics or virtue system and gain insights from it?… Read the rest